人幣與日圓相似 或繼續承壓 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡18 May 2022


    今年4月份,日圓相對美元下挫逾6%至20年低位,而人民幣相對美元亦在不足兩周時間内跌5%,目前更跌穿6.8的關口,至2020年9月以來最低水平。細看兩種貨幣急跌背後的原因相似。

    兩者急跌有3共同原因

    第一,貨幣政策分歧。日本方面,由於價格壓力仍溫和(3月通脹率僅達到1.2%)及經濟疲軟,日本央行堅持超寬鬆貨幣政策。中國方面,由於外需對經濟的支持可能減弱,同時内地疫情惡化,中國人民銀行加碼寬鬆政策以提振經濟,包括最近的降準。因此,在美國聯儲局進取加息的情況下,10年期美債和日債收益率差距,以及10年期美債和中債收益率差距,分別一度擴大至2019年初(逾280個基點)及2010年5月(約30個基點)以來最大水平。

    第二,商品價格持續上升。日本(高度依賴大宗商品進口)方面,由於日圓顯著轉弱,且大宗商品價格飆升,進口商或爭相買入更多美元。中國(主要加工出口國)方面,由於原材料和零件的進口需求強勁,在價格高企及人民幣突然轉弱的情況下,進口商或恐慌買入美元。換言之,進口商對沖美元升值風險的需求,加劇了日圓和人民幣的沽壓。

    第三,日本和中國不介意當地貨幣轉弱。在沒有太多價格壓力,同時有需要刺激出口的情況下,日本央行行長黑田東彥多次強調弱日圓對於日本經濟整體有利。另一方面,由於疫情惡化,以及封鎖措施蔓延至多個地區,市場猜測中國可能樂見人民幣轉弱,以支持出口,從而爭取達到今年約5.5%的經濟增長目標。而不時弱於預期的人民幣中間價,亦肯定了市場關於中國人行不介意人民幣轉弱的觀點。

    展望未來,若日本和中國經濟保持低迷,同時與美國之間的貨幣政策分歧保持不變,日圓和人民幣可能繼續承壓。

    日本面對「不可能三角」

    問題是日本央行和中國人行是否會出手干預。就過去經驗來看,干預並非完全沒有可能,尤其是如果日圓和人民幣直線下跌,且貶值的速度和幅度超過其他主要貨幣。不過,歷史數據顯示,央行的干預通常只能夠放緩而無法扭轉貨幣的升勢/跌勢。

    儘管如此,日圓和人民幣並非沒有可能找到支持。一方面,日本正面臨某程度上的「不可能三角」,包括弱貨幣、寬鬆政策及低通脹率。若目前日本央行傾向於選擇弱貨幣及寬鬆政策,那麽日本的通脹率將遲早上升。這最終可能迫使日本央行調整其貨幣政策,從而有助於限制日圓的下行空間。

    調整清零政策助挽市場信心

    另一方面,中國亦面臨一大難題,即如何在清零政策和穩健經濟之間取得平衡。由於今年中國將焦點轉移至經濟增長,監管當局或遲早有必要調整清零政策。若政策出現調整,或有助於緩解市場對中國經濟增長的擔憂,從而幫助限制人民幣的跌幅。其他方面,一旦市場對聯儲局未來加息作出充分的預期,同時美國經濟開始呈現增長放緩的跡象,美元可能回吐升幅。在此情況下,日圓和人民幣持續下跌的走勢亦可能告一段落。

    短期内(3至6個月内)人民幣和日圓可能相對承壓,但中期内(6個月以上)較大機會見底。

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