央行鷹派比併 美元更勝一籌 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡03 May 2022


    自從各大央行陸續開始表示通脹不是「短暫性」現象,全球通脹風險有增無減。首先,俄烏事件阻礙了全球能源、金屬及農產品的供應,導致大宗商品價格飆升。彭博大宗商品指數較去年底上升約30%,並一度升至2013年以來最高。

    其次,中國內地的疫情反覆,封城措施擴展至上海及其他二三線城市。中國主要港口運作受阻,亦加劇供應鏈瓶頸問題。

    中國疫情加劇供應鏈瓶頸

    近期,主要經濟體出現通脹率創下數十年新高的情況。因此,日本央行以外的主要央行輪流釋放鷹派訊號。具體而言,澳洲央行就收緊貨幣政策的取態,不再使用「保持耐心」的字眼。這令市場期待該央行將最早在5月開始加息。至於歐洲央行,官員亦相繼表示支持第三季結束買債、最早於7月開始加息,以及年底之前將利率上調至0厘以上水平。此外,英倫銀行官員表示,正考慮是否需要在下次會議加息超過25個基點。加拿大央行行長亦表示,考慮再度加息50個基點。

    儘管各大央行如此鷹派,卻仍不及美國聯儲局。自從3月聯儲局會議以來,聯儲局官員的立場漸趨鷹派。多位官員表示支持於5月甚或之後會議加息50個基點。當中最鷹派的官員James Bullard更表示支持加息75個基點。雖然美國3月核心CPI按月升幅意外地收窄至0.3%(因二手車價格回落),令市場一度憧憬美國通脹見頂,但隨着俄烏衝突及中國內地封城措施持續,美國通脹預期反覆上升。有鑑於此,市場期待聯儲局將進一步轉鷹。因此,目前期貨市場預計,聯儲局將於今年餘下時間加息約240個基點。由於聯儲局比其他央行更有條件(勞動力市場和經濟狀況穩健)及更有迫切性(工資增速高企且拜登政府首要任務是壓低通脹)加息,美債收益率升勢較急,而美滙指數亦不斷上升,並一度創2002年底以來最高。

    儲局釋出訊號將成關鍵

    本周,聯儲局將召開貨幣政策會議,屆時市場將獲得更多關於聯儲局加息路徑及縮表計劃的線索。而美元和美債收益率的走勢,亦將在較大程度上取決於聯儲局的立場。

    若聯儲局釋出的訊號不及預期鷹派,例如並沒有暗示未來進行多次50個基點的加息,美元和美債收益率或回落。這種情況發生的原因可能是,聯儲局認為美國通脹率見頂,以及對經濟前景感到擔憂。

    相反,若聯儲局釋出的訊號比預期更加鷹派,例如暗示未來將多次加息50個基點,以及將利率提升至對經濟增長具有限制性的水平(從而令需求符合有限的供應),美元和美債收益率或將進一步上升。在這種情況下,比起經濟前景,聯儲局可能更加擔憂通脹預期高企,以及工資增速強勁將導致通脹率居高不下。

    實際收益率太低削加息效用

    就目前美國通脹狀況來看,聯儲局比預期更加鷹派的機會不能排除,因供應問題難以解決,若不及時壓低需求,將難免造成價格飆升的狀況。同時,勞動力市場緊張,可能釀成工資價格螺旋式上升的風險。除非聯儲局大幅加息壓低通脹預期,否則實際收益率維持在超低水平甚至負值,將削弱加息的效用。回顧1970年代,美國利率甚至高於通脹率。總括而言,筆者認為在聯儲局保持鷹派以及美國經濟保持穩健的情況下,美元可能反覆走強。而在貨幣政策分歧的拖累之下,負息貨幣(歐羅、日圓和瑞郎)及人民幣或仍相對受壓。

    The information published by DBS Bank Ltd. (company registration no.: 196800306E) (“DBS”) is for information only. It is based on information or opinions obtained from sources believed to be reliable (but which have not been independently verified by DBS, its related companies and affiliates (“DBS Group”)) and to the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group does not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. The publication and distribution of the information does not constitute nor does it imply any form of endorsement by DBS Group of any person, entity, services or products described or appearing in the information. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment or securities. Foreign exchange transactions involve risks. You should note that fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may result in losses. You may wish to seek your own independent financial, tax, or legal advice or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate.

    The information published is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction; nor is it calculated to invite, nor does it permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction in any jurisdiction or country in which such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation or where such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DBS Group to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country, and should not be viewed as such. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, the information, services or products described or appearing in the information are not specifically intended for or specifically targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction.

    The information is the property of DBS and is protected by applicable intellectual property laws. No reproduction, transmission, sale, distribution, publication, broadcast, circulation, modification, dissemination, or commercial exploitation such information in any manner (including electronic, print or other media now known or hereafter developed) is permitted.

    DBS Group and its respective directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services to any persons or entities mentioned.

    To the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group accepts no liability for any losses or damages (including direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental or loss of profits) of any kind arising from or in connection with any reliance and/or use of the information (including any error, omission or misstatement, negligent or otherwise) or further communication, even if DBS Group has been advised of the possibility thereof.

    The information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is distributed (a) in Singapore, by DBS Bank Ltd.; (b) in China, by DBS Bank (China) Ltd; (c) in Hong Kong, by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited; (d) in Taiwan, by DBS Bank (Taiwan) Ltd; (e) in Indonesia, by PT DBS Indonesia; and (f) in India, by DBS Bank Ltd, Mumbai Branch.