每周外匯速遞 - 美元回落,關注聯儲局會議紀要 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部 – 財富管理23 May 2022


    本周焦點

    上周美元全面回落。首先,美聯儲官員沒有提及加息75個基點,且美國經濟數據疲軟,令美債收益率回落。其次,上周初風險情緒改善及周末澳洲大選結果樂觀,支持澳元和紐元上升。至於避險情緒升溫則支持日圓和瑞郎走强。第三,歐洲央行鷹派言論及英國强勁就業數據支持歐元和英鎊大幅反彈。不過,上周市場稍微忽視了美聯儲主席鮑威爾的鷹派言論(如有必要將加息至中性水平以上,直至通脹令人信服地下跌)。本周公佈的美國通脹數據(核心PCE)和FOMC會議紀要可能令市場將焦點轉回央行因素。在貨幣政策分歧的支持下,美元短暫回落後仍可能反彈,尤其是若美債收益率反彈。其他方面,市場將關注紐儲行貨幣政策會議,以及主要經濟體的5月PMI。

    本周外幣買賣策略

    美匯指數 
    美元指數顯著回落,背後原因主要有三個。第一,關於中國上海可能放寬封鎖措施的消息,令風險情緒升溫。第二,美聯儲主席Powell和官員Bullard均沒有提及加息75個基點。這加上美國經濟數據包括費城聯儲指數疲軟,令美債收益率回落。第三,歐元區首季GDP超乎預期,加上歐洲央行官員的鷹派言論,支持歐元大幅反彈。而英鎊則因當地就業數據强勁而顯著回升。展望未來,美元指數的升勢或未完待續,因美聯儲主席顯示壓低通脹率的決心(本周關注FOMC會議紀要),意味著貨幣政策分歧仍將支持美元。 脆弱市場情緒亦可能仍然利好美元。

    本周關注:
    FOMC會議紀要 (26 May 2022, 02:00HKT)
    美國4月核心PCE (27 May 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: DXY 105.00
    支持位: DXY 101.00



    人民幣 
    人民幣相對美元收復部分失地,且人民幣指數趨穩。一方面,美元全面走弱。另一方面,上海可能逐漸放寬封鎖措施,及中國推出針對支持地產市場的措施(包括下調5年期LPR),減輕市場對中國經濟前景的擔憂。展望未來,人民幣走勢將受美元因素、中美貨幣政策分歧(4月外資連續第三個月減持中國境内債券),以及中國疫情/經濟前景的影響。儘管中國疫情相關的好消息可能支持人民幣,惟人民幣仍可能因美元偏强,以及貨幣政策分歧而受壓。

    本周關注:
    中國4月工業利潤 (27 May 2022, 09:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCNH 6.8500 / CNHHKD 1.1900
    支持位: USDCNH 6.6000 / CNHHKD 1.1450



    加元 
    美元全面走弱,加元走强,惟表現稍落後於紐元和澳元。實際上,油價表現穩健。雖然上周中國和美國均出現一些經濟轉弱的跡象,但美國夏季駕車季即將來臨,意味著原油需求將受到支撐。另外,中國和印度對俄羅斯原油需求强勁。再者,原油供應仍然緊張。展望未來,儘管加拿大央行可能保持鷹派(4月CPI按年升幅創31年以來最高的6.8%),且油價可能高企,惟脆弱的市場情緒可能限制加元的升幅。加元淨短倉增加的空間大於澳元和紐元,亦可能限制加元的相對升幅。

    本周關注:
    加拿大4月零售銷售 (26 May 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCAD 1.3100 / CADHKD 6.1800
    支持位: USDCAD 1.2700 / CADHKD 5.9910



    英鎊 
    英鎊/美元突破1.25。雖然市場處於偏避險模式,但由於美元全面走弱,以及市場對英國央行進一步加息的預期升溫,英鎊大幅反彈。英國第一季失業率意外下跌至3.7%,不包括獎金的周薪按年增長4.2%,包括獎金的平均周薪按年升7%,均超乎預期。4月就業人口亦大幅上升121,000。由此可見,英國勞動力市場緊俏,加上通脹率居高不下(核心CPI按年升幅如期擴大至6.2%),可能推動英國央行於下半年進一步加息。不過,在英國生活成本危機及經濟衰退風險較高(消費者信心跌至至少48年來最低),且脫歐協議爭論不息的情況下,英鎊或仍受壓。

    本周關注:
    英國5月製造業PMI (24 May 2022, 16:30HKT)

    阻力位: GBPUSD 1.2640 / GBPHKD 9.9210
    支持位: GBPUSD 1.2150 / GBPHKD 9.5360



    澳元 
    澳元/美元大幅上升。起初,市場對中國上海放寬封鎖措施,以及對美聯儲加息幅度未必大於50個基點的憧憬,重振風險情緒。雖然澳洲第一季工資價格指數按年和按月分別上升2.4%和0.7%,不及預期,但澳儲行鷹派會議紀要顯示上期會議曾考慮過加息40個基點,且未來會議可能考慮大於25個基點的加息。市場對澳儲行大幅加息的預期,再加上澳洲周末選舉結果明朗,支持澳元/美元顯著反彈至0.7050上方。短期内,市場的脆弱情緒,中國疫情的不確定性,以及澳儲行逐漸加息的預期,這些因素叠加,可能令澳元繼續在區間内波動。

    本周關注:
    澳洲4月零售銷售 (27 May 2022, 09:30HKT)

    阻力位: AUDUSD 0.7130 / AUDHKD 5.5960
    支持位: AUDUSD 0.6760 / AUDHKD 5.3050



    紐元 
    紐元/美元反彈至0.64以上,主要是因為美元全面轉弱。本周,市場將密切紐儲行貨幣政策會議。鑒於紐西蘭較高的通脹率(首季創1990年以來最高的6.9%),且首季失業率維持在有紀錄以來低位,市場預期本周紐儲行將加息近50個基點。不過,由於該央行已領先其他主要央行的加息進度,接下來放慢加息步伐的機會較大。因此,央行因素對紐元的支持料有限。在全球經濟前景繼續受中國封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭及美國加息影響的情況下,紐元的升幅可能有限。

    本周關注:
    紐儲行貨幣政策會議 (25 May 2022, 10:00HKT)

    阻力位: NZDUSD 0.6540 / NZDHKD 5.1330
    支持位: NZDUSD 0.6200 / NZDHKD 4.8660



    日圓 
    美債收益率回落及避險需求上升,支持日圓大幅反彈。不過,日本第一季GDP年化按季增長率自去年第三季以來再次跌至負值,其中淨出口對經濟的拖累大於預期。由於日本經濟依然疲軟,日本央行可能維持超寬鬆貨幣政策。換言之,除非日本通脹壓力持續(雖然4月核心通脹率意外地上升至2.1%,但工資通脹仍疲軟),從而驅使日央行調整貨幣政策,否則貨幣政策分歧仍可能限制日圓的升幅。

    阻力位: USDJPY 131.40 / JPYHKD 6.3100
    支持位: USDJPY 124.40 / JPYHKD 5.9730



    歐元 
    歐元/美元反彈,並一度突破1.06的關口,主因是美國與德國國債收益率沒有進一步擴大。具體而言,美國經濟疲軟跡象及避險需求令美債收益率回落。相反,歐元區首季經濟增長優於預期,且歐洲央行漸趨鷹派(最新會議紀要顯示管委就加息達成共識,並暗示最快7月開始,目前唯一分歧是加息幅度和速度,其中Knot更提及加息50個基點的可能)。這為德債收益率帶來支持。不過,在歐洲經濟疲軟,且德意債息差距擴大的情況下,歐洲央行是否有太多空間加息令人懷疑。貨幣政策分歧或仍令歐元反覆受壓。

    本周關注:
    歐元區5月製造業PMI (24 May 2022, 16:00HKT)

    阻力位: EURUSD 1.0640 / EURHKD 8.3510
    支持位: EURUSD 1.0340 / EURHKD 8.1150



    瑞郎 
    瑞郎大幅反彈,因瑞士央行行長表示若通脹壓力持續,當局將采取行動。此外,避險情緒亦為瑞郎帶來支持。對於瑞士央行而言,由於近期瑞郎大跌,且能源價格高企,隨著通脹率上升至2008年以來最高的2.5%時,瑞士央行亦可能開始擔憂通脹壓力。由於歐元區和美國通脹率遠高於瑞士的水平,瑞士央行若轉鷹,可能令瑞士實際收益率更加吸引。總括而言,瑞郎相對美元和歐元的跌幅可能有限。

    阻力位: USDCHF 1.0050 / CHFHKD 8.2620
    支持位: USDCHF 0.9500 / CHFHKD 7.8090

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