俄烏衝突不只帶來避險需求 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡14 Mar 2022


    近期全球聚焦俄烏局勢。俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突自今年2月初以來快速升級。俄羅斯方面,對烏克蘭展開的軍事行動規模超乎預期。而西方國家方面,對俄羅斯的制裁力度亦超出預料。因此,全球避險情緒顯著升溫,伴隨着美元指數屢創2020年6月以來新高,同時傳統避險資產黃金亦一度上升至2020年9月以來的最高水平。

    回顧2014年克里米亞衝突,由俄羅斯入侵克里米亞開始計算,雙方衝突緩和花了整整一個月的時間。換言之,短期内,俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突仍可能繼續發酵,從而推升市場波動性,並對一些避險資產包括日圓、瑞郎、黃金、美元及美國國債帶來支持。

    人幣具避險性質

    除此之外,值得留意的是,近期人民幣亦呈現一些避險性質。首先,人民幣波動性較低。其次,中國國債與其他資產的相關性較低。第三,中國經常賬盈餘穩健,令中國境内美元流動性保持充裕。這有助緩衝市場動盪及美元需求上升之下的人民幣沽壓。

    不過,市場的焦點通常並不會長期停留在地緣政治風險上。反而,比起對投資情緒的影響,市場或需多加留意俄烏局勢帶來的中期影響。

    歐羅或反覆受壓

    一方面,對經濟帶來的影響。由於俄羅斯經濟在全球佔比不算太大,對全球經濟的拖累或有限。不過,對於高度依賴俄羅斯能源出口,以及在是次俄烏衝突中參與度較高的歐洲而言,經濟難免受創。根據過往經驗,歐洲央行對經濟的緊張程度似乎大於對通脹的擔憂。再加上近期歐洲央行官員發表的審慎言論,令市場對該央行今年加息的預期顯著降溫。因此,歐羅回吐早前因歐洲央行轉鷹帶來的升幅,並可能反覆受壓。

    另一方面,對通脹帶來的影響。2020年,俄羅斯的原油和天然氣產量分別佔全球逾10%和逾15%。此外,2020年,俄羅斯的小麥出口佔全球比重超過20%。再者,俄羅斯是主要的鋁、鎳等原材料生產國。因此,自從俄烏衝突升級以來,大宗商品價格顯著上升。雖然目前西方國家的制裁措施尚未涉及俄羅斯能源,但油價已飆升至2008年9月以來新高。另外,鋁和鎳的期貨價格分別上升至有紀錄以來新高和2011年以來高位。更值得留意的是,小麥期貨價格上升至2008年3月以來高位,而彭博農產品價格指數更創有紀錄以來新高。

    加息續支持美元

    除此之外,美國方面,筆者尚未看到供應鏈問題、勞動力短缺問題、房租升勢及通脹預期緩和的跡象。因此,對於經濟未必受到俄烏衝突太大影響的美國而言,接下來的首要任務或依然是對抗通脹。這亦解釋了為何聯儲局官員包括主席鮑威爾依然支持3月加息,且市場仍然預計聯儲局全年將加息超過5次。因此,貨幣政策分歧可能為美元帶來支持。

    總括而言,短期内,俄烏相關的不確定性可能反覆推升避險情緒,從而支持一衆避險資產。至於中期而言,對歐洲經濟的影響可能增添歐羅的下行壓力。而對全球通脹帶來的影響,則可能令聯儲局持續加息,從而為美元帶來支持。

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