英鎊/日元:正在修正下行 (英文版)


季節性研究顯示進入 5 月至 8 月的通常顯示較弱的情況
投資總監辦公室04 May 2022
圖片來源:法新社照片



Source: Bloomberg


GBP/JPY has been on a roar, having reached a late April spike high at 168.43 – it has registered a staggering 35.7% rally from 124.09, the late March 2020 lows. Its quantum of rally overshadowed that for EUR/JPY which did a less impressive 22.4% advance from the same timeline. GBP/JPY piercing through a 147.95 neckline triggered both pace and acceleration – at this juncture, there are some formative nuances that it requires a downward correction of excesses. In trading up to 168.43, the cross has exceeded 167.49, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 195.88-121.61 range grip that covered the Brexit referendum crisis into October 2016. On the technical panel, note the cross is now straddling the top end away from the mean of standard deviations – note that we had sighted a similar signal that had preceded the decline from 195.88. A rising trendline resistance that drives up from 121.61 lows has as well played its part in retarding the move to 168.43.

Chart 2

Source: Bloomberg

A quick check on seasonality studies; a 10 year back-test shows GBP/JPY typically has a weaker profile as we enter the month of May through August. Nonetheless, the market remains on tenterhooks over the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy where JPY weakness has been persistently driven by the BOJ’s determination to anchor yields within its Yield Curve Control target band. Until that changes, or on the vanguard of a Mi JPY intervention, any decline assumes a corrective tone.

Chart 3

Source: Bloomberg

On the daily Ichimoku chart, the cross has started to back track lower with a negative moving average convergence divergence (MACD) popping in. This has seen a quick 50% retracement of the 150.98-168.43 range, before the cross started to recover. The market requires a cross-over cut on the Tenkan line over the Kijun line, to build up further bearish pressure.

Chart 4

 
Source: Bloomberg

Our navigation map assume GBP/JPY has completed five-price legs up via the staging of 1-2-3-4-5, with the terminating point likely seen at 168.43. In the drive higher, GBP/JPY consolidated within a triangle (marked abcde), and calibrating its breakout objective, the cross certainly met that short-term objective via that rally to 168.43

Placing the price flow within regression lines, a break under the pivotal moving average value of 155.05 can theoretically drive the cross towards the bottom boundary around 150.45, thereabouts of the 150.98 low that marked the penultimate price leg 4. For now, the focus rests on its mid-point that traverses 159.60, which closes up on the 50-day moving average at 159.43.