Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Japan / GDP

BOJ remains uncomfortable

July 21, 2017
BOJ remains uncomfortable

We expect the central bank to keep short-term and long-term interest rate targets unchanged in the next 6-12 months and continue to anchor the yield curve through flexible bond purchases.

Indonesia / GDP

Little to lose sleep over

July 21, 2017
Little to lose sleep over

The anti-climactic Bank Indonesia decision kept interest rates steady and gave little hint of a change in policy stance anytime soon. But there were some important cues on the GDP growth trajectory.

India / Rates

RBI revives discussion on new liquidity tool

July 20, 2017
RBI revives discussion on new liquidity tool

To counter the risk to liquidity from strong foreign portfolio inflows, the Reserve Bank of India has reportedly revived discussions on a new liquidity tool – Standing Deposit Facility.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.31.0
Eurozone1.11.91.71.71.8
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.25.04.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.52.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.72.8
India*7.58.07.17.37.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.52.52.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.61.6
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.0
Malaysia3.12.12.13.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.83.23.2
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.91.7
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.2
China2.01.42.02.02.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.02.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.54.04.7
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US
Japan111.9114116117119
Eurozone1.1631.111.111.111.10
Indonesia13,33313,39313,41113,42913,447
Malaysia4.294.224.224.234.24
Philippines50.950.250.450.750.9
Singapore1.371.391.391.401.40
Thailand33.634.434.534.734.9
Vietnam^22,73022,72222,77122,82022,869
China*6.766.886.947.017.08
Hong Kong7.817.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.531.231.231.331.4
South Korea1,1211,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.464.864.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US1.251.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.256.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.50
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / GDP

US jobless claims hover at 44-year low

July 21, 2017
US

No matter how the numbers are sliced, labour markets in the US are tight and inflation remains elusive. Only one will last.

Europe / Rates

ECB fails to convince markets

July 21, 2017
Europe

The European Central Bank again played down the prospect of policy tightening, and markets once again refused to buy into the rhetoric, pushing German yields and the EUR up.

Insights and Analysis

China / Rates

Bond Connect sees solid demand...

July 17, 2017

The Bond Connect programme, which was launched on 3 July, has been seeing solid demand; the RMB16bn bond issue by Agricultural Development Bank of China was ten times oversubscribed

Key summary points
  • Convenient access to onshore bond market with attractive risk-reward proposition
  • Potential inclusion in global bond indices to trigger portfolio inflow

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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