Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Thailand / GDP

Sustained Growth in Imports

March 28, 2017
Sustained Growth in Imports

The bulk of Thailand’s jump in imports was due to a surge in imports of intermediate goods, a sign that demand for exports will remain supportive of the economy. As domestic private-investment growth...

India / GDP

Positive on India

March 28, 2017
Positive on India

Stabilising growth, political consolidation, and a positive macro environment bode well for India this year, but lagging private investment growth and banking sector stress may pose headwinds.

Japan / GDP

Expecting a Mixed Bag of Data

March 28, 2017
Expecting a Mixed Bag of Data

Japan’s February industrial production may surprise on the upside, but consumption and inflation will likely remain weak. What does this mean for the Bank of Japan?

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.72.6
Japan0.31.21.01.01.1
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.35.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.62.72.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.65.05.2
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan110.7113114116117
Eurozone1.0871.051.041.041.04
Indonesia13,31013,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.414.504.544.574.60
Philippines50.150.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.391.441.441.451.45
Thailand34.435.635.735.936.0
Vietnam^22,77422,84923,03423,21823,402
China*6.877.027.117.197.28
Hong Kong7.777.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.231.431.531.531.5
South Korea1,1131,1731,1741,1751,177
India65.068.868.969.169.3
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / GDP

Housing Demand Strong Even as Rates Rise

March 28, 2017
US

Higher interest rates have not yet dented demand for housing in the US – demand remains strong and prices continue to rise.

US / GDP

Under the Hood

March 27, 2017
US

The biggest thing about US 2016 fourth quarter GDP growth wasn’t the mediocre headline, it was the hefty domestic demand growth under the hood.

Insights and Analysis

India / Rates

Monetary Policy on Cruise Control...

March 27, 2017

After shifting to a neutral stance for monetary policy, India’s central bank may be pulling the brakes on the easing cycle that started in early 2015.

Key summary points
  • The RBI surprised with a shift to a neutral stance in Feb. Rates will be steady at April’s review
  • WPI surged past CPI inflation for the first time in early 2017
  • Composition of the inflation baskets explain the divergence, with the lift primarily supply-driven
  • While tradables remain beholden to the global environment, food inflation is more important
  • Excess liquidity also needs to be addressed, with implications for inflation and FX intervention

Read more reports

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