Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Singapore / GDP

Labour Market Lags Behind

December 02, 2016
Labour Market Lags Behind

There have been signs of bottoming out in Singapore’s growth cycle, but it will take time for the labour market to follow suit.

Indonesia / Inflation

Core Inflation Stuck at Multi-Year Low

December 02, 2016
Core Inflation Stuck at Multi-Year Low

Indonesia’s headline inflation accelerated in November, but core inflation has continued to fall. We believe inflationary expectations have been pulling core inflation down.

India / GDP

Losing Momentum

December 01, 2016
Losing Momentum

Any positive boost from India’s firm third quarter GDP numbers will be fleeting, as focus shifts to the impact of the banknote reform on fourth quarter growth.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.73.0
Japan1.400.60.80.8
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.61.6
Indonesia5.65.04.85.15.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.76.4
Singapore4.42.92.01.21.3
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.06.4
China7.77.36.96.56.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.52.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.67.87.9
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.32.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.10.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.64.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.02.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.72.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.50.9
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.43.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.31.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current4Q161Q172Q173Q17
US
Japan113.9105105105105
Eurozone1.0671.101.101.101.10
Indonesia13,56513,16013,33913,51813,697
Malaysia4.464.134.174.204.24
Philippines49.749.449.850.250.7
Singapore1.431.381.391.391.40
Thailand35.735.135.235.435.5
Vietnam^22,69022,24322,24322,24322,243
China*6.896.826.917.007.08
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan31.931.431.531.531.6
South Korea1,1681,1421,1451,1471,149
India68.367.467.567.667.7
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current4Q161Q172Q173Q17
US0.500.751.001.251.50
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.754.755.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.003.253.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

Imagining Asia 2020

June 06, 2014

Global

US / GDP

Greater Expectations on Jobs Front

December 02, 2016
US

There are several reasons why we expect Friday’s US employment figures to come in well above consensus expectations.

US / Currencies

Greenback Takes Breather

December 02, 2016
US

After a strong rally in November, the US dollar is taking a breather ahead of the December 14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Insights and Analysis

Indonesia / GDP

Indonesia and the ‘Trump’ Factor ...

November 30, 2016

While markets in Asia have been grappling with the uncertainty of the Donald Trump’s administration on the region, Gundy Cahyadi, DBS’ economist covering Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, ...

Key summary points
  • The key risk to Asia’s economic prospects in 2017 is not protectionism
  • It is the impact of market volatility caused by inflation in the US
  • Impact of US President-Elect Donald Trump’s policies may not be observable in the next 1-2 years
  • Long-term growth of Indonesia – and Southeast Asia – is on track
  • Economic and political reforms currently planned and in place must be sustained

Read more reports

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