Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Singapore / Rates

Continued Rally Unlikely

February 17, 2017
Continued Rally Unlikely

With ten-year Singapore government securities yields already 20 basis points below ten-year US Treasury yields, a continued rally in the former appears unlikely.

Indonesia / Rates

Bank Indonesia Maintains Status Quo

February 17, 2017
Bank Indonesia Maintains Status Quo

Bank Indonesia (BI) kept rates unchanged on Thursday and signaled no intention to move anytime soon. But we still think that the central bank will likely hike rates in the second half of the year.

Singapore / GDP

Singapore Economy in Turnaround

February 17, 2017
Singapore Economy in Turnaround

The 12.3% on-quarter expansion in Singapore’s economy in the 2016 fourth quarter was a turnaround from the 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. We will be revising up our 2017 GDP forecast.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.72.7
Japan2.00.31.21.01.0
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.71.6
Indonesia5.65.04.95.05.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.86.4
Singapore4.42.92.01.21.3
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.26.6
China7.77.36.96.76.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.42.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.66.97.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.22.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.20.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.54.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.12.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.82.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.50.9
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.73.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.41.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US
Japan114.3111113114115
Eurozone1.0571.081.081.071.07
Indonesia13,33013,33913,51813,69713,876
Malaysia4.454.464.564.674.78
Philippines49.849.850.250.751.1
Singapore1.421.441.451.461.48
Thailand35.036.336.536.636.8
Vietnam^22,74522,78222,78222,78222,782
China*6.876.937.027.117.19
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.832.232.432.532.7
South Korea1,1411,1991,2011,2041,206
India66.969.670.571.472.4
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US0.751.001.251.501.75
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.755.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Rates

Slack All But Gone

February 17, 2017
US

US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has made it clear that US rate hikes this year depend, first and foremost, on continued strengthening in the labour market. She’s getting that in spades.

Europe / Rates

ECB Affirms Dovish Stance

February 17, 2017
Europe

The modest downward revision in Eurozone’s 4Q GDP growth and soft production numbers for January have reinforced the bank’s decision to maintain an accommodative bias.

Insights and Analysis

Taiwan / GDP

Trump’s Policies and Taiwan...

February 14, 2017

We discuss the implications of US President Donald Trump’s policies for Taiwan in four major topics – trade, investment, government policies, and financial markets.

Key summary points
  • Trump’s policies could have far-reaching implications for Taiwan’s trade and investment
  • His policies could also affect Taiwan’s government policies and financial markets
  • The US-Taiwan manufacturing cost gap will further narrow if Trump pushes through tax cuts
  • Taiwanese firms may send investment towards Southeast/South Asia, in the event of US-China tensions

Read more reports

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